A Taipei-based think tank, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, has raised its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth for this year to 3.46%. That’s up 0.31 percentage points from its previous projection of 3.15% in July. The think tank also estimated Taiwan's 2015 GDP growth at 3.53% on the back of a mild recovery in the domestic economy.
The think tank issued the updated figures on Tuesday. It said although the overall economy has slowed down, many industries saw a higher than expected recovery rate in the first half of this year. Head of the think tank, Wu Chung-shu, said the global economy is expanding at a moderate rate, but the pace of recovery varies.
"If you look at Taiwan’s GDP growth rate, it was over 1% two years ago, over 2% last year, and it’ll be more than 3% this year and next year," said Wu. "This kind of moderate expansion is not unique to Taiwan; many other economies are also seeing the same pattern. Taiwan is an export-orientated economy, so if the global economy grows moderately, the Taiwanese economy will reflect the pattern," he said.
The think tank also pointed out some of the uncertainties that may affect growth momentum in the future. These include a rising US dollar, fragile global economic recovery, increasing competition between Taiwanese and Chinese businesses, and stagnant wages in Taiwan.
Meanwhile, also on Tuesday, the government statistics office announced that Taiwan’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.72% annually in September. It was down 0.03% from a month earlier.
September’s CPI growth on an annual basis was the lowest since February. The office said the slow growth last month reflected declines in the prices of vegetables and fuel compared with September last year. But the prices of eggs, meat, fish, and fruit were up, and the prices of pork reached a 73-month high.