A Taiwanese epidemiologist is saying that if Taiwan can keep it’s domestic cases of COVID-19 to under 20 cases a week, it will be able to avoid a major outbreak. The epidemiologist -- National Taiwan University’s (NTU) Chen Hsiu-hsi -- made the comment on Monday at the NTU College of Public Health’s weekly public hearing on fighting COVID-19.
Chen says Taiwan has been effective in containing COVID-19, because it closed its borders to foreign visitors. On February 7, Taiwan banned visitors from China, Hong Kong and Macau, and on March 19, it banned almost all foreign visitors.
Chen says that Taiwan has seen three community outbreaks. Those occurred in a household, in a hospital and at a research institute. Those had the potential to become large-scale community outbreaks but because of quarantine measures and the common practice of wearing masks, a large outbreak was avoided.
Chen also spoke about the future outlook for Taiwan. “If the daily number of imported cases remains the same, and if the domestic infections stay below 20 a week,” he said, “the chance of a community outbreak in Taiwan will not be high. If the domestic cases stay below 12% of the total number of cases, there should not be a second wave of cases.”
The dean of NTU’s College of Public Health, Chan Chang-chuan, spoke about concerns over the Tomb Sweeping holiday crowds. He said that the situation will become clearer in the next few weeks. But even if there are small outbreaks, he said, current social distancing measures are capable of preventing a large outbreak.
Chen called on the government to allow flexible hours at offices and schools, and to prepare to deal with cases at schools. He said these measures are important as the world awaits a vaccine.