A US think tank has, for the first time, listed a possible conflict between the US and China over Taiwan as a top-tier concern. The New York-based think tank, Council on Foreign Relations, included the potential conflict in its annual report last week.
The report assesses potential conflicts that could break out over the next year based on responses from 550 US government officials, foreign policy experts and academics.
The conflicts are listed in three tiers, with “Tier 1” signifying the highest risk. A US-China conflict over Taiwan was originally listed as a “Tier 2” risk in 2019 and 2020. However, it was elevated to “Tier 1” this year for the first time, based on its potentially “high impact” on US interests and the “moderate” likelihood of the conflict taking place.
The council’s definition of a “high impact” on US interests refers to a situation that directly affects the US, a defense treaty ally or a vital strategic interest and is therefore likely to trigger a major US military response. The council defines a “moderate” likelihood to mean that there is some chance of the event happening.