Taiwan’s consumer price index (CPI) could break the 3% mark in the next few months. That’s the word from the president of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, Chang Chien-yi, on Friday.
Chang says there are many international economic uncertainties affecting global markets. Those include the Russia-Ukraine war, the COVID pandemic, and national monetary policies. He says the third quarter of the year will be key to determining whether the global economic growth can remain steady.
Chang says since the outbreak of the US-China trade war, the focus of the global supply chain has been on stabilizing supply and not on pursuing low costs. He says it will be difficult for global prices to return to the same low levels as 30 years ago.
Chang also says oil prices are the main factor behind price rises. He says Taiwan’s CPI will be revised upward if oil prices remain at US$110 to US$120 a barrel in the long run. He says Taiwan’s economic growth rate could take a hit as well, and lose about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points.