The recent outbreak of COVID-19 infections in Taiwan is showing signs of slowing down. Most experts say cases will first level off and then start to fall. However, they disagree on how early that might happen.
In the past week, COVID-19 case numbers have stopped swelling somewhat and have even seen a mild decline. The Central Epidemic Command Center expects the current outbreak of the virus to peak in late May or early June. Experts say infections in Taiwan are “plateauing.”
Dr. Hung Tzu-jen from the Hsin Kuang Hospital says that during the plateau period, case numbers will stay level for some time. After that, they will start to gradually decrease, but only fall under 10,000 after the end of June.
He also says that as infections fall in the north of the country, they will start to swell in the central and southern parts. Despite that, Dr. Hung believes cases shouldn’t break 120,000 a day.
Some experts say that herd immunity in Taiwan might reach 80% as early as two weeks from now. Taiwan measures herd immunity by looking at the number of people who have received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine or have recovered from the infection. This is one of the necessary conditions allowing for reopening of national borders.
Dr. Huang Li-min from National Taiwan University Hospital disagrees. He says that based on experience from other parts of the world, it is doubtful that achieving 70% or 80% herd immunity is possible in such a short period.
Dr. Huang also says a fall in cases is only one factor in assessing the situation. If a new variant of the COVID-19 virus emerges, it may force experts to redo their calculations from scratch.
Tomasz Koper, RTI News