China may be learning to use nuclear threats from the Russo-Ukraine War. The New York Times shared this conclusion after analyzing nearly 100 Chinese research papers and media articles, as well as assessments from military experts and weapons analysts.
The New York Times reports that Russia’s use of nuclear threats to prevent Western intervention may be encouraging China to expand its own nuclear weapons program. The report says the nuclear deterrence plan has kept NATO from directly participating in the war, and China may apply the strategy to potentially invade Taiwan.
Beijing condemns the use of nuclear weapons in war, but Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) said last year that China would continue to expand its nuclear arsenal. The country currently has more than 400 warheads, still far below the count for Russia or the United States. But the Pentagon's assessment says China's nuclear arsenal may increase to about 1,000 warheads by 2030.
China military researcher Joel Wuthnow says Russia's nuclear threats have set an example for China. He adds that Xi may begin to believe that the United States and its allies would be easily intimidated regarding conflict in Taiwan, but Wuthnow says this is a miscalculation.