The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research announced its latest economic growth forecast for 2023 at 2.01%, down 0.71% from the previous forecast of 2.72%. The drop is mainly due to the Russo-Ukraine war stalemate, the United States and China confrontation, and the failure of Europe and the U.S. to meet the target for curbing inflation.
Institution President Yeh Chun-hsien (葉俊顯) says that the global economic slowdown, decelerating commodity trade, and anti-globalization trends are affecting domestic economic growth. However, he says the domestic private consumption has increased due to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in the first quarter.
The growth rate of each quarter this year is estimated at -0.89%, 1.71%, 2.56% and 4.51% respectively. Foreign trade is expected to stabilize from the second half of 2023 and on, though inflationary pressures may still affect trends this year.