Leading experts on Japan’s defense policy say that the war in Ukraine and Chinese aggression towards Taiwan have pushed Japan to raise its defense spending. Rti interviewed two leading Japan experts from the Stimson Center and Rand Corporation in Washington, D.C. about how Japan’s policymakers are grappling with the global security changes.
Japan has recently made several major changes in its plans for future military spending and weapons capabilities, increasing its defense spending to roughly 2% of GDP over the next five years. This is a deviation from its previous policy of capping defense spending at 1% of GDP. Japan also has unique constitutional restrictions that effectively ban weapons deemed to be offensive in nature. It has announced its intention to acquire what it calls a “counter-strike” capability, which has the potential to hit targets abroad.
Senior political scientist Jeffrey Hornung of RAND Corporation says that the change in Japanese defense spending is "huge". He says the antimilitarist norms of Japan’s domestic politics have faded into the background. He notes that 20 years ago during the Koizumi administration, procuring even aerial refuelers caused heated debates in Japan due to their perceived “war potential.” By contrast he says, in late 2022 when the plan to upgrade Japan’s aerial refuelers was proposed in the legislature, it received unanimous support.
As to whether Japan would participate in military actions in the defense of Taiwan, he says any assistance would likely be indirect and he is skeptical that Japan would send troops to Taiwan or ships into the Taiwan Strait. However, if Japan assists the U.S. in its military operations in the East China Sea, it could play an important role in a Taiwan contingency.
With maritime safety being a major concern for the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan. Senior fellow at the Stimson Center Yuki Tatsumi thinks the United States should hold regular maritime safety dialogues with Taiwan, Japan, and possibly the Philippines. She says that if such dialogues take place, all parties should make clear that China is welcome to join. However, she says that China’s participation in any future maritime safety framework is unlikely, and the reluctance to participate in such dialogues would be very telling.
Tatsumi says she expects Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to highlight nuclear nonproliferation at the upcoming G7 meeting in Hiroshima. She says that Kishida, originally from Hiroshima, may try to steer the discussion towards condemning nuclear intimidation by the nuclear powers.
Both experts say the rapid change in Japan’s defense policy was strongly influenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait. These global events played a large role in galvanizing Japanese official and public support for the new policies, and the experts say the changes are unlikely to be reversed.