A new poll finds that a majority of Taiwanese respondents believe that sitting Vice President and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) has the best chance of winning the 2024 presidential election.
The poll was conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation which released the results on Friday. The poll revealed that more than 56% of respondents felt Lai had the best chance of winning, compared to about 20% who had confidence that former Taipei City Mayor and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) would win. Only around 12% felt that New Taipei City Mayor and Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou You-yi (侯友宜) would win.
Lai’s lead in the poll is consistent across nearly all measures including the respondent's age, level of education, occupation, and location. KMT’s Hou was not even able to garner a majority of confidence from respondents from his own party, with only 46% believing Hou will win.
Foundation chairman Michael You (游盈隆) says that the consensus reflects the reality of a united ruling DPP running against a fragmented opposition in the KMT. However, You also emphasized that there are still more than four months before the election in January.
The survey included 1081 valid samples taken between August 14 and 15 with a margin of error of 2.98%.