In a recent interview with CNA, Former Editor-in-Chief of The Economist Bill Emmott warned the threat of economic sanctions alone and Taiwan’s “silicon shield” will not be enough to stop China from invading.
Referencing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Emmott argued that for political leaders who believe they bear a “historical responsibility” or aim for a “great strategy”, the temporary loss from economic sanctions is of low importance. As long as they are confident in persuading their people “for the greater good”, the prospect of sanctions will not be a decisive factor.
In the case of China, Bill Emmott explained that the country has the ability to become self-sufficient. In 2020 China implemented a “dual circulation” strategy: a policy aimed to push for domestic consumption while remaining open to international trade. The downward trend of the proportion of international trade in China’s GDP is another tell-tale sign towards self-sufficiency.
Emmott also expressed scepticism over the role that Taiwan’s chip industry can play in deterring a China’s invasion. The fallout from supply chain disruption or breakdown would be only a short or medium-term loss for China. Moreover, Emmott said there are people in both China and the US who think their chip industries could potentially benefit from Taiwan's silicon breakdown.
According to Emmott, true deterrence lies in Taiwan’s ability to build up societal resilience, economic resources, and military capability, with another deterrent being US direct engagement in the case of a conflict with China. Emmott just published a book in July 2024, titled “Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan”.