Taiwan’s economic growth rate could surpass 3% next year, according to forecasts by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) and the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER). This optimism aligns with recent remarks by National Development Council (NDC) Minister Liu Chin-Ching (劉鏡清). However, experts caution that the outlook depends heavily on policies implemented under a second Trump presidency.
TIER President Chang Chien-Yi (張建一) highlighted expectations from the IMF and WTO for global trade growth in 2024. Alongside Taiwan’s steady domestic demand, he notes strong indicators for achieving a target of 3% economic growth. Chang added that if Trump delivers on his promise to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it could ease global inflation and spur demand, benefitting economies worldwide, barring any unforeseen circumstances. However, Trump’s proposed tariff measures remain unpredictable. Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has indicated plans for reciprocal tariffs with other nations, though specific measures remain unclear.
CIER Vice President Wang Jiann-Chyuan (王健全) believes that Trump’s policies, likely to take effect after his January inauguration, could bring short-term boosts to Taiwan’s economy. Proposed U.S. tax cuts, for example, may stimulate American demand, creating opportunities for Taiwanese exports and stocks.
However, Wang warned that Trump’s aggressive tariff measures—such as a 60% tariff on Chinese products—could have significant long-term impacts, particularly on Taiwan’s traditional industries, which must prepare for these challenges.