Chung-Hua Institution Economic Research (CIER) has projected Taiwan’s economic growth rate in 2025 to be 3.22%, with the consumer price index (CPI) expected to rise by 1.93%. This forecast, released on Thursday, suggests a balanced growth pattern between domestic demand and foreign trade.
The growth trajectory shows a gradual quarterly increase, starting from 1.91% in Q1 and reaching 4.02% by Q4. While this represents a slight decrease of 1.08 percentage points from 2024's 4.3% growth, CIER maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook. However, the institute identifies Trump's potential economic policies as the primary risk factor for Taiwan's economy.
CIER President Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) highlighted several concerns regarding future U.S. trade policies, including the timing and scope of potential tariff implementations, particularly their impact on Taiwan's crucial IT sector. The institute also noted that while Taiwan's status as a key U.S. ally exempts it from AI chip export controls, restrictions on exports to other countries could still affect Taiwanese manufacturers.