Academia Sinica officials testified in the Legislature on Thursday that Taiwan’s economic growth rate is projected to fall short of the previously forecasted 3% target amid ongoing global trade tensions. This assessment follows U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement yesterday that he authorized a 90-day delay in high tariff implementation, imposing interim 10% tariffs while immediately raising tariffs specific to China to 125%.
During a questioning session with Legislator Yeh Yuan-zhi (葉元之), Academia Sinica Vice President Peng Shin-kun (彭信坤) stated that the projected economic growth rate of 3.1% for last year is no longer feasible and will be adjusted downward, although the extent of this adjustment remains uncertain.
Regarding President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) "zero-tariff" trade negotiations with the U.S., Peng noted that Taiwan's average statutory tariff is already below 2%. He emphasized that non-tariff barriers, such as import quotas and quarantine regulations, are the primary concerns.
Deputy Director of the Economics Research Institute at Academia Sinica Yang Shu-Chun S. (楊淑珺) warned that high tariffs might reduce exports and trigger capital outflow, applying downward pressure on the Taiwan dollar and potentially causing imported inflation. She projected that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) could exceed 2%, with increasing price pressures. The institute's previous exchange rate forecast of 32.51 USD/TWD may have been overly optimistic due to these challenges.