The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) has released its monthly Business Composite Index (BCI). The latest figures, released Wednesday, show that the manufacturing and construction sectors are making a comeback, while the service sector has hit its lowest mark since the 2009 financial crisis.
TIER director Gordon Sun said there will be a significant economic comeback early next year. Factors include a stabilizing global economy, positive outlook in manufacturing, and an improvement in exports over a three-month period.
"We are only seeing an initial economic comeback. If the manufacturing sector can grow over two or three consecutive months, the recovery will be stronger," said. "For more obvious signs of improvement, we might need to wait until quarter one of next year, or even after Chinese New Year.”
The BCI for the service sector has seen a significant decline since May, though this has slowed in November. The TIER believes reasons for the decline include lower-than-expected consumption in annual sales events, fewer Chinese tourists, and reduced consumption in the West due to a fear of terrorist attacks.
The BCI for the construction sector has seen a significant bounce back in November, with growth in both construction and real estate. The TIER says that this is due to a year-end rush in the construction business and more buying in the real estate market before the introduction of a new tax on capital gains from property sales.