Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s top research institute has cut its GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 0.75%. That’s down from an estimate of 3.24% made in July.
Academia Sinica is also pessimistic about 2016 due to low energy prices and the rise in US interest rates, both of which will affect emerging markets. Moreover, the rise of China’s ‘Red Supply Chain’ could hurt Taiwan’s exports, leaving Taiwan with a GDP growth rate of 1.74% next year.
The latest forecast from Academia Sinica is the lowest so far among all local think tanks. The institute’s optimistic outlook on exports for the fourth quarter has turned negative.
However, Academia Sinica says that the first quarter of 2016 could see an economic rebound as the impact of low oil prices on emerging markets begins to lessen.